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This paper aims to describe a multi-scenario assessment of the seismogenic tsunami hazard for Bangladesh from active subduction zones in the Indian Ocean region. Two segments of the Sunda arc, namely, Andaman and Arakan, appear to pose a tsunamigenic seismic threat to Bangladesh.

High-resolution numerical simulations of tsunami propagation toward the coast of Bangladesh have been carried out for eight plausible seismic scenarios in Andaman and Arakan subduction zones. The numerical results have been analyzed to obtain the spatial variation of the maximum tsunami amplitudes as well as tsunami arrival times for the entire coastline of Bangladesh.

The results suggest that the tsunami heights are amplified on either side of the axis of the submarine canyon which approaches the nearshore sea off Barisal in the seaboard off Sundarban–Barisal–Sandwip. Moreover, the computed tsunami amplitudes are comparatively higher north of the latitude 21.5o in the Teknaf–Chittagong coastline. The calculated arrival times indicate that the tsunami waves reach the western half of the Sundarban–Barisal–Sandwip coastline sooner, while shallow water off the eastern half results in a longer arrival time for that part of the coastline, in the event of an earthquake in the Andaman seismic zone. On the other hand, most parts of the Chittagong–Teknaf coastline would receive tsunami waves almost immediately after an earthquake in the northern segment of the Arakan seismic zone.

The present assessment includes probabilistic measures of the tsunami hazard by incorporating several probable seismic scenarios corresponding to recurrence intervals ranging from 25 years to over 1,000 years.

The purpose of this paper is to present an assessment of the potential tsunamigenic seismic hazard to Sri Lanka from all active subduction zones in the Indian Ocean Basin.

The assessment was based on previous studies as well as past seismicity of the subducion zones concerned.

Accordingly, four seismic zones capable of generating teletsunamis that could reach Sri Lanka have been identified, namely, Northern Andaman‐Myanmar, Northern Sumatra‐Andaman and Southern Sumatra in the Sunda trench and Makran in the Northern Arabian Sea. Moreover, plausible worst‐case earthquake scenarios and respective fault parameters for each of these seismic zones have been recommended.

However, other potential tsunami sources such as seismic activity in the near‐field, submarine landslides and volcanic eruptions have not been considered.

Numerical simulations of tsunami propagation have been carried out for each of the four scenarios in order to assess the potential impact along the coastline of Sri Lanka. Such information relating to the spatial distribution of the likely tsunami amplitudes and arrival times for Sri Lanka would help authorities responsible for evacuation to make a better judgment as to the level of threat in different areas along the coastline, and act accordingly, if a large earthquake were to occur in any of the subduction zones in the Indian Ocean.

In the absence of comprehensive probabilistic assessments of the tsunami hazard to Sri Lanka, this paper's recommendations would provide the necessary framework for the development of deterministic tsunami hazard maps for the shoreline of Sri Lanka.

Based on the existing provisions/operations of tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean, authors observed that detection as well as arrival time estimations of regional tsunami service providers (RTSPs) could be improved. In particular, the detection mechanisms have been eccentrically focussed on Sunda and Makran tsunamis, although tsunamis from Carlsberg ridge and Chagos archipelago could generate devastating tsunamis for which inadequate provisions exist for detection and arrival time/wave height estimation. RTSPs resort to assess estimated arrival time/wave heights from a scenario-based, pre-simulated database. These estimations in terms of Sri Lanka have been found inconsistent. In addition, current warning mechanism poorly manages non-seismic tsunamis. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate these drawbacks and attempt to carve out a series of suggestions to improve them.

The work initiated with data retrieved from global earthquake and tsunami databases, followed by an estimation of probabilities of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean with particular emphasis on Carlsberg and Chagos tsunamis. Second, probabilities of tsunami detection in each sub-region have been estimated with the use of available tide gauge and tsunami buoy data. Third, the difficulties in tsunami detection in the Indian Ocean are critically assessed with case studies, followed by recommendations to improve the detection and warning.

Probabilistic estimates show that given the occurrence of a significant earthquake, both Makran and Carlsberg/Chagos regions possess higher probabilities to harbour a tsunami than the Sunda subduction zone. Meanwhile, reliability figures of tsunami buoys have been declined from 79-92 to 68-91 per cent over the past eight years. In addition, a Chagos tsunami is left to be detected by only one tide gauge prior to it reaching Sri Lankan coasts.

The study uses an averaged tsunami speed of 882 km/h based on 2004 Asian tsunami. However, using exact bathymetric data, Tsunamis could be simulated to derive speeds and arrival times more accurately. Yet, such refinements do not change the main derivations and conclusions of this study.

Tsunami detection and warning in the Indian Ocean region have shown room for improvement, based on the inadequate detection levels for Carlesberg and Chagos tsunamis, and inconsistent warnings of regional tsunami service providers. The authors attempted to remedy these drawbacks by proposing a series of suggestions, including a deployment of a new tsunami buoy south of Maldives, revival of offline buoys, real-time tsunami simulations and a strategy to deal with landslide tsunamis, etc.

Indian Ocean is prone to mega tsunamis as witnessed in 2004. However, more than 50 per cent of people in the Indian Ocean rim countries dwell near the coast. This is verified with deaths of 227,898 people in 14 countries during the 2004 tsunami event. Thus, it is of paramount importance that sufficient detection levels are maintained throughout the Indian Ocean without being overly biased towards Sunda tsunamis. With respect to Sri Lanka, Makran, Carlesberg or Chagos tsunamis could directly hit the most populated west coast and bring about far worse repercussions than a Sunda tsunami.

This is the first instance where the threats from Carlesberg and Chagos tsunamis to Sri Lanka are discussed, probabilities of tsunamis are quantified and their detection levels assessed. In addition, reliability levels of tsunami buoys and tide gauges in the Indian Ocean are recomputed after eight years to discover that there is a drop in reliability of the buoy data. The work also proposes a unique approach to handle inconsistencies in the bulletins of regional tsunami service providers, and to uphold and improve dwindling interest on tsunami buoys.